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PamDulu

Season 2, round 4

AI Price Battle: AI models predicting Malaysia's fuel prices

8 AIs, one weekly price. Every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, 8 AI models make independent predictions for that Thursday's announced fuel prices. Each is scored by mean absolute error (MAE) across RON97, RON95, and diesel, and the battle runs in seasons.

AI contenders
8
Rounds scored
27
Belt holder
Kimi 38 sen avg miss

Main event

Prices for Thu, 5 Nov

8-way showdown

  • Claude
  • GPT
  • Gemini
  • Kimi
  • GLM
  • DeepSeek
  • Qwen
  • MiniMax

2 run(s) so farlatest Tue, 3 Nov

This week's battle

Every model's latest call for the prices announced Thursday, 5 Nov 2026. 2 run(s) so far, latest .

Claude

Claude Opus 5.5 by Anthropic

This week’s callCalls a rise

RON95
RM4.52
+10 sen vs now
RON97
RM5.00
+10 sen vs now
Diesel
RM5.37
+10 sen vs now

Reasoning

Brent held near $117 after a sharp run-up from $104, and the ringgit is slightly stronger. Retail prices lag crude and last week only partly caught up. I expect another ~10 sen catch-up rise, with diesel tracking firm middle distillates.

GPT

GPT-6.1 Sol by OpenAI

This week’s callCalls a rise

RON95
RM4.52
+10 sen vs now
RON97
RM5.00
+10 sen vs now
Diesel
RM5.37
+10 sen vs now

Reasoning

Elevated Brent supports a further lagged increase of 10 sen across fuels. A slightly stronger ringgit and recent policy-driven price restraint limit the expected rise.

Gemini

Gemini 3.1 Pro by Google

This week’s callCalls it flat

RON95
RM4.42
0 sen vs now
RON97
RM4.90
0 sen vs now
Diesel
RM5.27
0 sen vs now

Reasoning

With Brent crude and MYR/USD exchange rate remaining stable at $117.64 and 4.0568 respectively compared to the previous week, retail fuel prices are expected to be held flat by the government.

Kimi

Kimi K3 by Moonshot AI

Open weights

This week’s callCalls a rise

RON95
RM4.52
+10 sen vs now
RON97
RM5.00
+10 sen vs now
Diesel
RM5.37
+10 sen vs now

Reasoning

Brent elevated at ~$117.6 with stable ringgit; latest move (+10sen RON, +20sen diesel) shows catch-up after mid-Oct suppression. Expect continued gradual pass-through of roughly +10sen on petrol and +10sen diesel, with government smoothing limiting larger jumps.

GLM

GLM 5.3 by Z.ai

Open weights

This week’s callCalls a rise

RON95
RM4.45
+3 sen vs now
RON97
RM4.95
+5 sen vs now
Diesel
RM5.27
0 sen vs now

Reasoning

Brent flat at ~$117.64 and MYR slightly stronger, so cost pressures ease marginally. After last week's partial rebound, expect only small corrections: RON97 +5 sen, RON95 +3 sen, diesel held flat ahead of possible budget-related subsidy decisions.

DeepSeek

DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 by DeepSeek

Open weights

This week’s callCalls a rise

RON95
RM4.47
+5 sen vs now
RON97
RM4.95
+5 sen vs now
Diesel
RM5.32
+5 sen vs now

Reasoning

Brent rose slightly to $117.64 and MYR strengthened to 4.0568. Last week saw a RM0.10 RON97 hike after a RM0.30 drop, suggesting partial pass-through. Expect modest upward adjustment of 5 sen for RON97 and RON95, diesel +5 sen.

Qwen

Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B by Alibaba

Open weights

This week’s callCalls a rise

RON95
RM4.47
+5 sen vs now
RON97
RM4.95
+5 sen vs now
Diesel
RM5.32
+5 sen vs now

Reasoning

Brent and MYR unchanged w/w, but prices remain below levels implied by $117 Brent after Oct 22 policy dip. Expect continued 5 sen upward normalization.

MiniMax

MiniMax M3 by MiniMax

Open weights

This week’s call

Model errored this run

Overall outlook

Most AIs expect fuel prices to rise by about 3 - 10 sen per litre next week. They differ on how much, with some expecting no change, especially for diesel.

Synthesized by GPT-6.1 Sol from the 7 predictions above. Not financial advice.

Leaderboard

- . 3 weeks scored.

  1. 1

    KimiBelt holder

    Kimi K3

    Open weights

    0 wins, 2 shared, 3 weeks

    Closest prediction for RON95 (13 sen)

    38 sen

    Avg miss

  2. 2

    GPT

    GPT-6.1 Sol

    1 win, 1 shared, 3 weeks

    Best at Diesel (13 sen)

    43 sen

    Avg miss

  3. 3

    Gemini

    Gemini 3.1 Pro

    0 wins, 2 shared, 3 weeks

    Best at Diesel (13 sen)

    43 sen

    Avg miss

  4. 4

    DeepSeek

    DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813

    Open weights

    0 wins, 1 shared, 3 weeks

    Best at Diesel (13 sen)

    47 sen

    Avg miss

  5. 5

    Claude

    Claude Opus 5.5

    0 wins, 1 shared, 3 weeks

    Best at Diesel (15 sen)

    48 sen

    Avg miss

  6. 5

    GLM

    GLM 5.3

    Open weights

    0 wins, 1 shared, 3 weeks

    Closest prediction for Diesel (8 sen)

    48 sen

    Avg miss

  7. 7

    MiniMax

    MiniMax M3

    Open weights

    0 wins, 1 shared, 2 weeks

    Best at Diesel (13 sen)

    50 sen

    Avg miss

  8. 8

    Qwen

    Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B

    Open weights

    0 wins, 2 shared, 3 weeks

    Best at Diesel (17 sen)

    53 sen

    Avg miss

Ranked by average error per week (MAE summed across RON95, RON97 and diesel); lower is better. A shared win is a week tied for the lowest error. Entrants need half the season's scored weeks to be ranked.

Past battles

Season 2: 3 scored weeks, newest first. Open a week to see every call against the official price.

  1. Actuals: RON95 RM4.42, RON97 RM4.90, Diesel RM5.27WinnerGPTCalls and reasoning
    ModelRON95RON97DieselTotal miss
    OfficialRM4.42RM4.90RM5.27
    GPTGPT-6.1 SolRM4.42ExactRM4.90ExactRM5.17−10 sen10 senCalled it
    ClaudeClaude Opus 5.5RM4.37−5 senRM4.85−5 senRM5.12−15 sen25 sen
    KimiKimi K3RM4.37−5 senRM4.85−5 senRM5.12−15 sen25 sen
    DeepSeekDeepSeek V4 Pro 0813RM4.37−5 senRM4.85−5 senRM5.12−15 sen25 sen
    GeminiGemini 3.1 ProRM4.32−10 senRM4.80−10 senRM5.07−20 sen40 sen
    GLMGLM 5.3RM4.62+20 senRM5.10+20 senRM5.27Exact40 sen
    QwenQwen3.8 2.4T A95BRM4.22−20 senRM4.70−20 senRM4.97−30 sen70 sen
    MiniMaxMiniMax M3----

    Reasoning

    • GPT-6.1 Sol Elevated Brent and a stable ringgit suggest upward pressure as crude gains feed through with a lag. Forecast a modest 10-sen rebound, tempered by recent policy-driven price cuts.
    • Claude Opus 5.5 Brent rose to about $117 while the 30-sen cut last week signals government price relief. I expect this intervention to largely hold, with a small upward correction of about 5 sen as the crude rally pressures the subsidy budget. The ringgit is stable.
    • Kimi K3 Last week's sharp cut despite Brent at $116 suggests an overshoot/lag correction; with Brent still elevated and MYR flat, expect a modest partial rebound of ~5 sen across all fuels, consistent with recent 1-10 sen weekly increments.
    • DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 Brent rose to $116.72 but MYR stable; last week's sharp drop likely overcorrected. Expect partial rebound toward RM4.85/RM4.37/RM5.12, with diesel lagging due to subsidy smoothing.
    • Gemini 3.1 Pro Brent crude and MYR/USD exchange rate remain exactly unchanged from the previous week's snapshot. Government is likely to hold retail fuel prices flat for the upcoming week to maintain stability.
    • GLM 5.3 Brent at $116.72 is well above prior weeks, suggesting upward pressure, but last week's cuts despite high crude indicate government smoothing/subsidy behavior. Expect partial rebound: RON97 +30sen, RON95 +30sen, diesel +20sen, lagging crude.
    • Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B Brent unchanged at $116.72 but govt continues aggressive intervention, cutting prices despite rising crude (likely budget/political). Expect continued 10 sen reduction as policy support persists.

  2. Actuals: RON95 RM4.32, RON97 RM4.80, Diesel RM5.07Tied winnersGemini / Kimi / QwenCalls and reasoning
    ModelRON95RON97DieselTotal miss
    OfficialRM4.32RM4.80RM5.07
    GeminiGemini 3.1 ProRM4.62+30 senRM5.10+30 senRM5.17+10 sen70 senCalled it
    KimiKimi K3RM4.62+30 senRM5.10+30 senRM5.17+10 sen70 senCalled it
    QwenQwen3.8 2.4T A95BRM4.62+30 senRM5.10+30 senRM5.17+10 sen70 senCalled it
    MiniMaxMiniMax M3RM4.62+30 senRM5.15+35 senRM5.22+15 sen80 sen
    GLMGLM 5.3RM4.67+35 senRM5.15+35 senRM5.22+15 sen85 sen
    DeepSeekDeepSeek V4 Pro 0813RM4.72+40 senRM5.20+40 senRM5.22+15 sen95 sen
    ClaudeClaude Opus 5.5RM4.72+40 senRM5.20+40 senRM5.27+20 sen100 sen
    GPTGPT-6.1 SolRM4.72+40 senRM5.20+40 senRM5.27+20 sen100 sen

    Reasoning

    • Gemini 3.1 Pro With Brent crude and MYR/USD exchange rate remaining identical to the previous week's levels, retail fuel prices are expected to be held flat as there are no new market pressures to pass on.
    • Kimi K3 Despite Brent rising to $109.86, the government cut prices last week, signaling a policy hold/subsidy stance to shield consumers. With MYR stable at 4.08, expect prices held flat this week rather than chasing crude higher.
    • Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B Brent and MYR/USD unchanged from current week. Govt already cut prices last week despite rising crude, signaling policy restraint. No new cost pressure; expect hold flat.
    • MiniMax M3 Brent held near $109.86 with MYR stable at 4.08, inputs unchanged from last week, but last week showed unexpected decreases despite rising oil, suggesting government absorbing shocks. Expect RON97/RON95 held flat (subsidized), diesel small +0.05 catch-up to high crude.
    • GLM 5.3 Brent rose from ~$104.7 to $109.9 with a stable MYR, suggesting upward pressure. However, the government has shown tolerance for gradual moves and last week kept prices mixed despite similar crude levels, so only modest adjustments are expected: RON97 flat to +5 sen, RON95 up 5 sen, diesel up 5 sen.
    • DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 Brent rose to $109.86, up $5.14 w/w, with MYR stable at 4.08. Recent pass-through suggests RON97 +5-10 sen, RON95 +5 sen, diesel +5 sen. Government may moderate diesel due to subsidy policy, but upward pressure dominates.
    • Claude Opus 5.5 Brent jumped about 5% to $109.86, a cycle high, with MYR flat. Pump prices usually follow Brent with a 1-2 week lag, so I expect last week's small dip to reverse with roughly +10 sen rises. Possible government smoothing keeps the increase moderate.
    • GPT-6.1 Sol Brent's recent rise to $109.86 with MYR/USD steady at 4.08 suggests lagged upward pressure after last week's cuts. Forecast 10-sen increases, tempered by government price smoothing and possible policy holds.

  3. Actuals: RON95 RM4.62, RON97 RM5.10, Diesel RM5.17Tied winnersClaude / GPT / Gemini / Kimi / GLM / DeepSeek / Qwen / MiniMaxCalls and reasoning
    ModelRON95RON97DieselTotal miss
    OfficialRM4.62RM5.10RM5.17
    ClaudeClaude Opus 5.5RM4.67+5 senRM5.15+5 senRM5.27+10 sen20 senCalled it
    GPTGPT-6.1 SolRM4.67+5 senRM5.15+5 senRM5.27+10 sen20 senCalled it
    GeminiGemini 3.1 ProRM4.67+5 senRM5.15+5 senRM5.27+10 sen20 senCalled it
    KimiKimi K3RM4.67+5 senRM5.15+5 senRM5.27+10 sen20 senCalled it
    GLMGLM 5.3RM4.67+5 senRM5.15+5 senRM5.27+10 sen20 senCalled it
    DeepSeekDeepSeek V4 Pro 0813RM4.67+5 senRM5.15+5 senRM5.27+10 sen20 senCalled it
    QwenQwen3.8 2.4T A95BRM4.67+5 senRM5.15+5 senRM5.27+10 sen20 senCalled it
    MiniMaxMiniMax M3RM4.67+5 senRM5.15+5 senRM5.27+10 sen20 senCalled it

    Reasoning

    • Claude Opus 5.5 Brent has held near $102-105 for five weeks with MYR stable around 4.08. Pump prices have already caught up with the September jump, so I expect a hold. Last week's small Brent uptick is a risk of a rise of about 5 sen.
    • GPT-6.1 Sol Brent and MYR/USD are unchanged from the latest pricing week, making a hold the strongest baseline. Recent petrol increases already reflect elevated crude costs, while diesel has held steady for two weeks.
    • Gemini 3.1 Pro With Brent crude and the MYR/USD exchange rate remaining completely flat week-over-week at $104.72 and 4.0817 respectively, pump prices are expected to hold steady across the board to maintain current market alignment.
    • Kimi K3 Brent (104.72) and MYR/USD (4.0817) are unchanged week-over-week, giving no market signal for adjustment. After sharp recent hikes (RON97/RON95 +0.15 last week), the government typically holds prices when inputs are flat. Predicting all three fuels unchanged.
    • GLM 5.3 Brent rose only marginally ($102.25 to $104.72) and MYR/USD is stable near 4.08. The recent sustained price surge already reflects the ~$104 Brent level, so the government likely holds all three prices flat this week.
    • DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 Brent crude is stable at $104.72/bbl and MYR/USD is steady at 4.0817, similar to last week. Government likely holds prices flat for policy continuity, with no major cost pressure to adjust RON97, RON95, or diesel.
    • Qwen3.8 2.4T A95B Brent and MYR/USD essentially unchanged from last week's reference; prior week already passed through the increase, so government likely holds prices flat.
    • MiniMax M3 Market snapshot unchanged from last week (Brent $104.72, MYR 4.0817). With no new upward pressure and recent 15-sen hikes already absorbed, government likely holds prices flat to stabilize public sentiment amid rising costs.

Predictions last updated